Ouro Insights Global Power Dynamics 1945–2100 · 70 nations
Projection 2025
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Rankings · 2025Total Power Index
1945 2100
Sources & Methodology
Power metrics — data anchors
Total powerMilitary: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database 2024. Nuclear arsenals: FAS Nuclear Notebook 2025. GDP: IMF World Economic Outlook 2024. Population: UN WPP 2024. Historical backbone: Correlates of War CINC v6.0 (1816–2016).
Per capitaGDP per capita: IMF WEO 2024. Human Development Index: UNDP HDR 2024. Innovation: WIPO Global Innovation Index 2024. Governance: World Bank WGI 2024. Switzerland 2025 = 100.
NetworkReserve currency: IMF COFER Q4 2024. FX: BIS Triennial Survey 2022. Diplomatic reach: Lowy Asia Power Index 2025 & Elcano Global Presence 2024. Trade: UNCTAD 2024. US 2025 = 100.
Projections 2026–2100
GDPGoldman Sachs "The Path to 2075" (Daly & Gedminas, 2023). PwC "The World in 2050" (2017). OECD Long-Run Scenarios 2025.
PopulationUN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision. Nigeria projected 3rd most populous nation by 2050; China projected ~633M by 2100.
Power indexPardee Center International Futures Model (186 countries to 2100). NIC Global Trends 2040.
Scenario frameworks
ClimateWorld Bank "Groundswell" (2021, 216M+ internal migrants). IPCC AR6 Working Group II. Xu et al., "Future of the Human Climate Niche" (PNAS 2020).
Waning USBeckley & Brands, "The Danger of Distraction" (Foreign Affairs 2023). Eichengreen "Dollar reserve share erosion" (NBER 2022). Dollar share: St. Louis Fed 2026.
Tech splitEurasia Group Top Risks 2025. Omdia "Semiconductor Market Intelligence 2025." BCG "Decoupling Realities" (2023).
DemographicUN WPP 2024. Lowy Institute "Asia Demographic Crossroads" (2024). Colby & Mitchell, "The Demographic Dividend Divide" (RAND 2023).
AfricanIMF "African Century" (Finance & Development, 2023). Goldman Sachs Nigeria/Ethiopia projections (2024). AfCFTA Secretariat progress reports.
Methodology notes

Scores are composite indices calibrated to US 2025 = 100 (total & network) and Switzerland 2025 = 100 (per capita). Historical values 1945–2016 use COW CINC as backbone, adjusted with Beckley efficiency correction (GDP × GDP per capita) to reduce population bias. Values are linearly interpolated between benchmark years. Scenario multipliers apply from 2026 onward, interpolating from 1.0 at 2025 to the stated multiplier at each benchmark year. Country analysis texts reflect publicly available geopolitical assessments and are editorial rather than model outputs. Scores should be treated as analytically calibrated estimates, not precise measurements.